2021 Oscar Predictions – 93rd Academy Awards
(The 2021 Oscars take place on April 25, 2021, at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT and airs live on ABC.)
BEST PICTURE
Film Reviews by Marlene Ardoin
Should Win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Will Win: “Nomadland”
Did Win: “Nomadland”
Best Picture Nominees:
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7″
“The Father”
Trailer:
THE FATHER Official Trailer (2020) Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots Drama Movie HD – Bing video
Only those who have lived long enough to take over the responsibility of an aging parent, will understand why this film was nominated. The fact that Anthony Hopkins plays a narcissist, with no acts of compassion to redeem him, not even taking care of a pet, make his character even more unsympathetic. His ego simply will not let go of control.
He defends his self-efficacy fiercely, causing severe harm to those who love him. He seems to take pride in changing warm smiles to iced hurt.
Where is the photo of his missing, most likely suffering, wife? I imagined that his second daughter, Lucy, ended up in an auto accident, because of the emotional trauma caused by him.
I would have preferred a story of a sweet, kind, giving aging parent. They really do exist. Why do the nasty, egotistical parents get the headlines and the movies?
Living With Dementia – Agree, never argue, Divert, never reason, Distract, never shame, Reassure, never lecture, Reminisce, never say “remember”, Repeat, never say “I told you”, Do what they can do, never say “you can’t”, ask, never demand, Encourage, never condescend, Reinforce, never force.
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
Trailer:
Judas and the Black Messiah (2021) – Bing video
Both “Judas and the Black Messiah” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” touch on how the Black Panthers had a big target on their backs in the 1960s.
But, even though both stories are true, I think “The Trial of the Chicago 7” gave me more of an emotional pull, even though Fredrick Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya) was shown to be graphically assassinated and betrayed in much the same way.
Both films are timely with the George Floyd murder trial happening during their film’s release.
I was resistant to seeing this film, but found the information in the credits at the end worth the wait.
Hampton was targeted by the FBI, and was betrayed by a young thief, Bill O’Neal (Lakeith Stanfield), for the money and a car.
There was a little that I could hang on to emotionally. Hampton was just 21 years old when he died; that is sad.
The fact that the FBI chose an individual to betray Hampton, who steals from his own kind.
The fact that the FBI exploited a young man, who basically had nothing, is also sad.
Then, the FBI increasingly brings out the worst in O’Neal. They ask O’Neal to do things which are bound to catch up with him emotionally.
I would have preferred a story of Hampton’s faithful friends, who stood by him and believed in the cause that Black men and women are strong, powerful and proud as the angle, but I suppose there would be no conflict.
“Mank”
Trailer:
MANK | Official Trailer | Netflix – Bing video
Herman J Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman) has been a popular film subject, because he knew all the movers and shakers during the period when film moved from silent to sound.
And, the list of films that his writing left its mark on is impressive, The Wizard of Oz (1939), starring Judy Garland, and It’s a Wonderful World (1939), featuring Jimmy Stewart. He was the highest paid writer of his time.
I really wanted to understand what it was that motivated and created such a dynamo.
His parents were Jewish immigrants from Germany.
The film, “Mank,” suggests that he had a hand in helping people escape from Germany during the World Wars.
This is what I wanted to see him doing, not recuperating from an auto accident or backing a political candidate.
We also see him tracking down a colleague, director Shelly (Jamie McShane) , whose wife was afraid that he might try to kill himself.
And, he helps his brother, Joseph L. (Tom Pelphrey), become a screenwriter in Hollywood.
Mankiewicz is shown to be a good man, who is also drinking himself to death, while trying not to roll his eyes at all the depravity that was part of the Hollywood environment at the time.
He is at a point in his career when he can afford to offend people like William Randolph Hearst (Charles Dance), Marion Davies (Amanda Seyfried), Orson Welles (Tom Burke) and Louis B. Mayer (Arliss Howard) , to name a few.
As a writer in this film, he shows some muscle to those who were disrespecting him.
Citizen Kane (1941) was not his last script, after it was nominated for nine Academy Awards, with Mankiewicz winning one for best original screenplay (which he shared with Orson Welles).
I would have liked to see the Herman Mankiewicz, who transitioned from journalism to screenwriting at time in history, when there was no safety net.
“Minari”
Trailer:
Minari | Official Trailer HD | A24 – Bing video
“Minari” depicts how an immigrant Korean family is warmly accepted into a Midwest community.
They are accepted into a church and seem to make friends easily at church and at work.
This may or may not be the real case, given all the Asian hate that has been expressed more recently. This must be before Covid 19 arrived on the scene.
The wife (Han Yeri) convinces her husband (Stephen Yun) that her mother (Yun Yo-jong) is needed to take care of their two children, while they work at a chick sexing plant. This turns out to be an excellent suggestion, most of the time.
Many wives have a problem with being transplanted to a new family location, without being honestly consulted and without an equal say. This applies to all wives, not just Korean.
Her mother arrives not expecting a free ride. She is ready to contribute and help, in spite of the huge adjustment that it must have been for her culturally.
I felt the wife was unfairly portrayed as overly critical of her husband, who seems to feel that he knows what is best.
He proves not to know what is best for the family, because he is navigating the unknown. And, he makes some major mistakes, like not being open to dowsing for water on their land.
When they get to the point of a family crisis, the wife is allowed to choose what is best for the family. This is what made the film for me.
“Nomadland”
Trailer:
Trailer: ‘Nomadland’ – Bing video
“Nomadland” is a lyrical depiction of one woman’s (Frances McDormand) discovery of herself and of freedom.
She is just recovering from her husband’s death.
She has spent her entire life being faithful to a childless marriage and a husband, who may not be meeting her needs.
The meager life that she and her husband existed in is also examined.
She longs to explore the world, but their mining job keeps them in a track home and in a state of servitude.
Her only joy seems to have been her husband’s love and a window that faced the mountains.
This is not living, this is slavery. This is just barely being able to survive.
It is sad that her husband had to die, before they could escape this way of living.
Half of this is on her.
Did she have to wait for everything to die around her – the job, her husband, her home, the town? How many wake-up calls does one need?
Frances McDormand, as Fern, does not strike me as a simpleton or a doormat.
I think she is more like a college professor or a journalist.
McDormand does give respect to the title of homeless, however, but she may not be just right for the role.
Her character is easy going and sometimes, childlike; so easy going that she ignores her own inner voice, until the end.
“Promising Young Woman”
Trailer:
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN Trailer (2020) Carey Mulligan Movie – Bing video
I was a little bit afraid to see this film, because I thought it was going to be too graphic and confrontational. I was relieved that it was not that bad, and it even had humor and romance.
This film is the poster child for the “Me Too” era. The days of ignoring that men are playing around is over.
Cassie (Carey Mulligan) is a young woman, who challenges all the good old boys out there, one by one.
Circumstances force her on this mission, while she is still young and desirable. Most women wake up at the age of 65, after becoming the joke.
Carey’s “Cassie” reveals an inner core that is fiercely loyal, fair, intelligent and a romantic at heart.
The ugliness of how women are exploited and used in American culture is explored here.
I enjoyed all the characters, circumstances, twists and turns.
“Sound of Metal”
Trailer:
Sound of Metal (2019) – Bing video
“Sound of Metal” almost has the same van as “Nomadland,” only for a couple, two rock band musicians (Riz Ahmed as Ruben Stone and Olivia Cooke as Lou Berger).
We find out that at the end of their four years living in their van, Ruben kicks meth, loses his hearing and Lou reunites with her wealthy, French father in Paris.
Ruben’s loss of his hearing forces a change, like an eclipse.
These two young lovers are each running from emotional distress to rock music, which is a form of screaming, loud, music therapy.
On the plus side, they had their own band, where she was the lead singer and he was the lead drummer.
He is left poor, deaf, and homeless, except for his van.
But, he is generously accepted into a shelter for the deaf, where he is asked to give up his van keys and his iPhone.
If it was not for her rich father, they may have worked it out as a couple, or not.
Ruben appears to be more in love with Lou, than she is with him, toward the end of their four years, and his intention is to be reunited with her, after he gets his hearing back.
Ruben proves to us that he is capable of creating magic, for love.
Lou’s appearance changes after being with her father, she is not as vibrant or as attractive.
We do not know what Lou’s mother was so upset about, but my guess is that she felt trapped and controlled by her husband and his money.
The deaf shelter director (Paul Raci as Joe) was right, Ruben needed to meditate and write in order to lose his anger and his self-pity.
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Trailer:
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2020) – Bing video
I preferred “The Trial of the Chicago 7” to “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
Because, it was not just the Blacks, who were targeted and betrayed during the 60s, it was also the Jews, the Hispanics, the hippies, the women’s rights activists, the gays and all the Anti-war protesters.
All the people in the court room developed a group awareness of the unfairness and the betrayal coming from the governmental system.
After the trial, the credits explain that Abbie Hoffman (Sacha Baron Cohen) committed suicide. My research discovered that he was very upset that the next generation of youth were not interested in protesting. He was bipolar. He own daughter also committed suicide.
The credits also state that Jerry Rubin (Jeremy Strong) died, when he was hit by a car. My research found that he had become a multimillionaire, because he was an early investor in Apple Computer. Rubin became a businessman and at one point, Bobby Seale (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) was a salesman in one of his businesses.
2021 Oscar Predictions in Every Category:
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom DID: Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman DID: Frances McDormand, “Nomandland”
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Best Director: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Nomadland”, Chloé Zhao DID: “The Father”
Best Original Screenplay: “Promising Young Woman”, Emerald Fennell
Best Animated Film: “Soul”
Best Documentary: Time DID: “My Octopus Teacher”
Best International Film: “Another Round”
Best Editing: “Sound of Metal”
Best Cinematography: “Nomadland” DID: Erik Messerschmidt, “Mank”
Best Sound: “Sound of Metal”
Best Original Score: “Soul”
Best Original Song: “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” DID: “Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Best Costume Design: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Best Production Design: “Mank”
Best Visual Effects: “Tenet”
Best Documentary Short: “A Concerto Is a Conversation” DID: “Colette”
Best Animated Short: “If Anything Happens I Love You”
Best Live Action Short: “The Letter Room” DID: “Two Distant Strangers”
Full list of Nominations:
BEST PICTURE
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7″
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Youn Yuh-jung, “Minari”
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Another Round” – Denmark
“Better Days” – Hong Kong
“Collective” – Romania
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” – Tunisia
Qu Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
“Colette”
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song for Latasha”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Collective”
“Crip Camp”
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
“Time”
ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
“lo Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami…”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Borat Subsequent MovieFilm”
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami”
“The White Tiger”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
DIRECTOR
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Tenet”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sean Bobbitt, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Erik Messerschmidt, “Mank”
Dariusz Wolski, “News of the World”
Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
Phedon Papamichael , “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
COSTUME DESIGN
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Blackbottom”
“Mank”
“Mulan”
“Pinocchio”
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
“Sound of Metal”
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
ORIGINAL SCORE
“Da 5 Bloods”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
“Tenet”
FILM EDITING
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
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4/23/2021 # 2021 Oscar Predictions – 93rd Academy Awards
